I’ve got to hand it to the Bogleheads community, the Variable percentage withdrawal (VPW) is cool! It’s a variable withdrawal method, which means if Mr. Market takes a swing and you get punched in the face just as you enter retirement…cue Mike Tyson’s wisdom: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”…your next year’s withdrawal takes a dip too. But here’s the cool part about the VPW: this plan helps you get back off the mat! Those withdrawals flex with market turbulence, adjusting to keep you steady in the withdrawal stage of life.
CLICK HERE – If you are curious How the Bogleheads VPW Calculator Crunches the Numbers.
Bogleheads VPW Calculator for FERS Employees
This is no brainchild of mine—it’s an educational tool borrowed from the Bogleheads geniuses. If you are not familiar with who they are, they are a very large Vanguard-loving personal investing comunity inspired by John Bogle. I just tried to copy thier formula here in this calc. It’s not financial advice! Play with it for FERS retirement ideas.
What is VPW?
VPW is a withdrawal strategy that adjusts your TSP/portfolio withdrawals yearly based on age, allocation (e.g., C, S, I vs. F, G funds), and balance. It adapts to market changes, letting you spend most of your savings without running dry—perfect for FERS retirees with pensions. BTW – The Bogleheads crew would likely lean toward a portfolio with more in the C Fund (U.S. large-cap stocks, like the S&P 500) for solid growth, pairing it with a smaller slice in the S Fund (small/mid-cap stocks) and I Fund (international stocks)—think something like 60% C, 20% S, and 20% I for a balanced stock chunk. For the bond side, using either the G Fund (the TSP rockstar for zero risk) or F Fund (broader bonds) works, but G is the star of the TSP show, hands down.
How It Works
- Input Data: Enter age, TSP balance, stock percentage, and withdrawal frequency (monthly, quarterly, or annual).
- Add Pensions: Include FERS annuity, Supplement, or Social Security with amount, start age, and COLA status.
- Calculate: Multiplies balance (adjusted for pensions) by an age/allocation-based percentage, then subtracts active pensions.
- Update Yearly: Re-run annually with new age and balance.
It uses growth trends (5.0% stocks, 1.9% bonds from 1900-2018 data) and caps at 10%. See the Bogleheads wiki.
Show Calculations
The calc uses this formula: Withdrawal % = 1 / (1 + [(1 – (1 + r)^(-n+1)) / r]), where r is the growth rate (e.g., 3.76% for 60/40: 60% × 5.0% + 40% × 1.9%), and n is years to 100 (100 – age). It adjusts for pension present value with 2% inflation for non-COLA.
VPW Table (Click to Expand)
Show VPW Table
Here’s the Bogleheads’ magic table—matches the calc’s outputs!
| Age | Withdrawals | 30% Stocks 70% Bonds |
40% Stocks 60% Bonds |
50% Stocks 50% Bonds |
60% Stocks 40% Bonds |
70% Stocks 30% Bonds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 82 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 19 | 81 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 20 | 80 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 21 | 79 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 22 | 78 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 23 | 77 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 24 | 76 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 25 | 75 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 26 | 74 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 27 | 73 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 28 | 72 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 29 | 71 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 30 | 70 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 31 | 69 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 32 | 68 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| 33 | 67 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| 34 | 66 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| 35 | 65 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| 36 | 64 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| 37 | 63 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| 38 | 62 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| 39 | 61 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| 40 | 60 | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| 41 | 59 | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| 42 | 58 | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| 43 | 57 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 44 | 56 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 45 | 55 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% |
| 46 | 54 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% |
| 47 | 53 | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% |
| 48 | 52 | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% |
| 49 | 51 | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| 50 | 50 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| 51 | 49 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% |
| 52 | 48 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| 53 | 47 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| 54 | 46 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| 55 | 45 | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 56 | 44 | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 57 | 43 | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 58 | 42 | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 59 | 41 | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| 60 | 40 | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% |
| 61 | 39 | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| 62 | 38 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 63 | 37 | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 64 | 36 | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 65 | 35 | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% |
| 66 | 34 | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 67 | 33 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 68 | 32 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| 69 | 31 | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
| 70 | 30 | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| 71 | 29 | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| 72 | 28 | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| 73 | 27 | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% |
| 74 | 26 | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| 75 | 25 | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% |
| 76 | 24 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% |
| 77 | 23 | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| 78 | 22 | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% |
| 79 | 21 | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% |
| 80 | 20 | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% |
| 81 | 19 | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% |
| 82 | 18 | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
| 83 | 17 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% |
| 84 | 16 | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% |
| 85 | 15 | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% |
| 86 | 14 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% |
| 87 | 13 | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% |
| 88 | 12 | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% |
| 89 | 11 | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% |
| 90 | 10 | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 11.9% |
| 91 | 9 | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 13.0% |
| 92 | 8 | 13.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 14.3% |
| 93 | 7 | 15.5% | 15.6% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| 94 | 6 | 17.9% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| 95 | 5 | 21.1% | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.5% | 21.6% |
| 96 | 4 | 26.1% | 26.2% | 26.3% | 26.4% | 26.5% |
| 97 | 3 | 34.3% | 34.4% | 34.5% | 34.6% | 34.7% |
| 98 | 2 | 50.7% | 50.8% | 50.8% | 50.9% | 51.0% |
| 99 | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Important Notes
- This is an educational tool, not financial advice. Talk to a financial advisor or OPM for official planning.
- Update inputs yearly with your new TSP balance and pension changes.
- Check the Bogleheads wiki for more support.
Disclaimer
The Bogleheads VPW Calculator is just a tool to help you learn and plan! This tool gives you a rough idea of how your retirement withdrawals (based on age, TSP balance, and FERS pension) might look, adapting to market changes.
This is not an official OPM determination and not financial advice—think of it as a fun starting point, not a final answer.